I think that we have a good chance of repeating the Oct. 1987 massacre, or a black Monday, the bottom last October was just a tad under 2900, the 52 weeks low is just a tad above 2300. I simply cut the difference in two, nothing special because it is just a wild guess. That will also be about a 20% haircut from Friday close, and since the combination of a bad break on Friday followed by the Monday massacre was there in 87, I thought we might get something like that here. It all really depend on the way we open and the appearance of bids. If bids do not appear, who knows how far it goes.
The market, could of course fool us and start up, but I would say there is very little probability of that happening. On the other hand, all the comments around are so bearish that this would not be impossible.
I'll repeat, I do not know (I never know) what will happen, but can only state that there are enough "ingredients" in place to make this a possibility.
From the technical point of view, there are really no support areas down to 2900 (I mentioned this area early last week, if memory serves), and if it breach, a rapid additional 10% could easily happen.
Zeev
PS, the weakness is spreading, Israel which was open today, was down 8% plus, New Zealand just opened almost 5% down. If Tokyo goes down 5%, the European will follow and we may follow hard. |
