AJ, I agree I was stretching a point. As you say, the primary reason for the significant Nasdaq price drops is more to do with the all-time high and vertigo rather than the Jackson Microsoft decision, which wasn't really news at all since it was obviously going to go that way and had been obvious for a year.
It surprises me how much dismay there is over what is really a trivial drop. The Dow is barely down at all and the Nasdaq is at November highs, which were all-time highs. So anyone thinking we are at silly lows might have another very big think coming.
As you say, the babies are going out with the bathwater. Many companies won't come back after this, but the good ones will not really be changed at all. They have real sales, real profits, secure technology trajectories and are riding The New Paradigm of globalisation, technology, creativity, capital formation, communication, 6bn people and civilization with no end in view.
QUALCOMM is one of those!
Just as Korea had a serious drop and anyone who is whining about their losses should consider what happened in Korea and elsewhere in the Asian Contagion. There were serious total losses in those countries. BUT, in Korea, QUALCOMM and CDMA just roared ahead through the mess. It was obvious that they would, though it was surprising how few people seemed to understand that, even in these threads. We had people actually thinking a buyout of Q! at $80 [$20 split-adjusted] would be heaven.
Now we have people selling Q! at $105 and I suppose lower on Monday [your time].
QUALCOMM isn't going to be damaged by this market drop. Sales of CDMA products will even accelerate as the need to earn and communicate becomes more important. Certainly, CDMA sales as a percentage of the world's economy will be increased after people cancel their new SUV orders, trips to the Bahamas, new houses with all mod-cons, bottles of Bollinger and expensive clothes, meals and decide not to quit their jobs after all. They won't cancel their CDMA purchases [not much anyway].
Even QUALCOMM's relative purchasing power, using stock, hasn't declined other than compared with cash, which Q! is generating flat out. Q! stock hasn't dropped more in this latest crunch than the run of the mill stocks.
That's my theory anyway.
Mqurice |
