I haven't posted for a while, but I need a sounding board for my current market view. At the end of Feb beginning of Mar, I went to a 40% cash position by selling 40% of AMAT @190, ASYT @50, KLAC @80 LRCX @160, NVLS @65, SVGI @28, UTEK @18, SPCT @25, and CMTO @80. I missed EGLS @45. Cash has risen to 46.5%.
Currently, I believe that there are still absurd valuations in the market and that these could cause a longer bear market with significantly lower prices. I believe that there could be a significant "bear trap" rally coming shortly to correct what is or soon will be an oversold condition. Based on these thoughts, I have a +/- 25% model. AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, NVLS are buys ~25% lower than Fiday's close. EGLS, SVGI, and UTEK might be tremendous bargains if they report improving business conditions. I am hoping that good reports from small frys like these are ignored in this carnage and I will be able to pick them up after earnings reports before any price appreciation. The +25% scenario is where I would like to raise cash to 60-80% during a rally that adds 25% to current prices. |
