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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: Investor2 who wrote (13290)4/16/2000 9:27:00 PM
From: Mr. BSL  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
I2, RE: You seem to be dismissing the possibility that this really may be the big bear. How can you be so confident that it isn't?

This could very well be the big bear. The OTC is in a 35% bear market right now and if we take out last Friday's close on a (closing basis) in the next few weeks, we will probably be heading done some more. NYSE stocks are holding up quite well IMO. Time will tell. This stuff is certainly not a science! My comment about BB is that it sounded to me like he was dismissing the possibility of a bottom anytime soon. This is much different than two weeks ago when he said (like a true technician) that he would get back into the market when his indicators gave the all clear, regardless of the market level at the time. That was consistent with his position that no one has a crystal ball. We he starts projecting minimum times (in months) it will take for his indicators to turn, he is crossing the line from technical analysis to predicting. I know the two are the same in many peoples mind. Once you start making predictions, it is human nature to start ignoring what your technical indicators are telling you. Therefore, if his indicators start saying that a market bottom is forming and he is on record as predicting that things are not likely to turn in the next few months, we will miss out on his bottom calling analysis that he is pretty good at.

Take care,

Dick
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