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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 679.68

+0.7%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (46134)	4/16/2000 10:02:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 99985

HI LG; Have you looked at the Comp lately ? quote.yahoo.com^dja&d=b The chart don't do it justice as it doesn't show the last leg down to where it's now at ( below 3000). What it does show is a very clear down trend..starting a year ago..... How about the 1600+ in good old trusty Value Line... quote.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=2ym There is a two year bear market for you.. ----------------- I shouldn't say more but I will, Last year I figured the market would churn but go ahead and go up for a few more years ( ie yr 2007 to 2012 ) at that point pension funds will need money for the Generation X people going into retirement. I may have got the demographics wrong , it seems as prices climbed on the techs and pushed up the S&P because of market cap weighting the money managers themselves were charmed into taking on more and more obligations. ---------------------- You and I know there is no real " money reserve" in the stock market..not a cent; the crap is just worth what some sucker will pay for it. But what is in &tied to the stock market is about 150 Trillion Dollars worth of "real obligations" that must be paid in the not to distant future..it seems looking at the "broad" picture the obligations due have been mounting faster than the broad range of stocks they depend on can go up. The Naz and Tech are not the heart of the market..thats bull shit, the heart is where all the pension funds put their dollars years ago.. all those obligations.. If they were wise enough to get 30% tech they will still have to sell it, there is no way out "if the other stocks stay in a bear market"; it spills over and eventually kills them all & that's a fact. Any new money they get will soon have to be paid not to some broker to buy stocks..but to fund the retirement claim backlog..I think we may have entered that stage to some degree already.. For this market to make new highs, the low PE and value stocks need to make a strong come back, but it's looking dimm now..to much damage has been done. People need to understand there is no new/old economy stocks which are independent of one another..via funds pension as well as insurance the whole gang is tied together..and for the broad averages to stay in bear mode will kill the availability of money to find it's way to the so called new stuff..that kind of transition never happens successfully at tops..the only way it can is at bottoms or if every thing crashes. ------------------------------------ It's a liquid problem, while every one is hyping margin calls Crap margin aint a pimple to the Debt and obligations that all the various trusts have to pay out by trying to sell some stock to meet other obligations.. In other words retirement money managers invested all the "rent" money..in a market that turned bear on them -------------------- We should do some sort of rally, and I can't tell where the bottom is eventually going to be ( or if there is even going to be one ) what I can tell is the top is in for a long time, the only way it can make any new high is if the dollar falls so bad and inflation takes off so bad to where stocks look cheap at any price. All the trusts now need inflation to pay off their obligations with cheaper money. But right now we are getting a lesson in the value of hard cash, & some one better listen. ------------------- A rally yes but recovery no.."recovery means getting back to the last high"..The value line hasn't done that in two years..the Comp in a year..and with all the jive of the wall street shysters and CNBCs infocomercials.. the underlying broad egg nest is slowly burning away.. Be a long term investor they say..well they better look beyond the fancy paint job, and at obligations vs price also what the obligations were tied to.. ----------------- Yep they did a good paint job TOP SIDE, but if you look at the guts you'll see they been gutting her for over a year.

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