Remember GIGO. It might be a good idea to review your figures further before you proceed. In 1999, the CDMA market experienced greater than 100% subscriber growth. Year over year. I don't know about the projections going forward, but would guess 50% YOY compounded will happen for a few years. But even to take your simplistic example of a market doubling in 3 years, with CDMA's share going from 20% to 25%, you suggest the following:
my 8.3% "growth" goes to 16.6% a year for cdma which roughly equates to qcom's growth
Since you are using a simple noncompounding percentage, you are really saying that subscriber growth in CDMA over 3 years will only total 50%.
Let's do a simple math exercise. Say the current market is "100", of which, CDMA's 20% is "20". And then say the market is "200" in 3 years. So CDMA's 25% is now "50". That implies total growth of 150% from a base of "20". To use a simple noncompounding percentage like you did above, 150% divided by 3 is 50% per year. The actual compound rate is 36%. But remember, this is GIGO, because you are simply guessing that the market will double in three years. Nevertheless, even based on your own figure, you have underestimated the actual growth rate by a factor of three--and this is after I corrected your earlier post, which had underestimated the growth rate by a factor of six (based, again, on your own figures). I don't mean to give you a hard time, but if you're going to calculate these things, it seems best to be accurate.
Regarding patent longevity, here is a post I made earlier today. Many of the QCOM followers know more about the specifics than I do.
Message 13435905
Good luck, MM |
