I appreciate the fact that most of thread's participants not been trading/investing in techs since Rande's call to divest.ÿ I believe, and I maybe wrong as I don't read every post, that this call was ofÿ 'seasonal' nature more than anything else.ÿ At least at time call was made. I would like to inquire if any of thread's participants have theories on whether or not this downtrend (and at this point, we ain't just talking techs) may be about more thanÿ fluctuations of seasonality.ÿ And if Rande/others have already discussed this, I apologize for missing these posts.
What I see being bandied about 2 possibilities for sell-off (besides seasonal):
-valuation meltdown.... this is what cnbc sillies / general media would like us to believe.ÿ is this problem? without doubt, over-valuation is there and now all of a sudden we are coming to senses and selling off 'cause it just ain't right?ÿ well if this is culprit, without a doubt, we will go down, and then back up some prob. by fall, once nasty excesses burned off. no worries. orchestrated fall will orchestrate back up eventually.
or is problem -
-economy- risk resides in economy.... this is what more 'highbrow' pundits are discussing- but viewership/populairty is not widespread.
the prez., and fed if comment at all, comment to effect that u.s. economy is doing fine.ÿ can't remember specific articles i have been reading to this affect, but this is what i been seeing.ÿ i always worry when they say not to and vice-versa- i would feel better if powers that be announce fears of inflation, then i would be less worried that this is actually problem. i am getting idea that risk resides in longer-term economy and maybe not so much in valuations?
reason i asked for opinions on this is not b/c i am overly interested in discussing economy, etc.ÿ i am not.ÿ at all.i would like to have better feel for whereÿ problem is, or where problem is being represented to be, in order to have better strategy for trading these next couple months.ÿ
if problem is valuations, and powers that be want us lower, then so be it, we go lower and we trade those super first recovery stocks for quick gains or be brave and buy those super companies we believe great values. valuation problem is not really problem imo- just a change in strategy.
but if problem is economy... well, much harder to trade in full-blown bear market. squeezing out tiny amounts- blood from stone.
so what does everyone think, everyone buying valuation meltdown version being fed to us, or more subtle inflation/recession hush-hush ??
by the way, I have made a point of talking to a LOT of people about market over weekend, and I am convinced that outside of those who trade market on a daily basis- whether at home as means of support or sneaking in trades at their day-job- there is NOT much fear by 'investors.'ÿ Those people i know who work at CISCO/IBM/EMC (I am located in Research triangle park NC and work in software industry- everyone i know is in tech) and invest for long term, including job-options seem more or less indifferent to these fluctuations.ÿ they are sure that everything will go back up eventually and will not sell until until roof is on fire over their heads.ÿ they sure ain't capitulated.ÿ only capitulation i have seen is among the traders. how much of maket traders comprise of?
thanks for any comments |
