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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: chic_hearne who wrote (106113)4/17/2000 2:20:00 AM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (2) of 1576223
 
chic,

<I think INTC will continue to show good earnings, but not revenue growth. >

This is what I have been saying for a while. However, if the packaging rumors are true even meeting the earnings will be a problem.

<I have trouble beleiving that INTC can actually be capacity constrained.>

I don't! Especially in the context of the fairly poor CuMine launch.

<I think INTC recognizes the threat on the high end from AMD so they have "created" their own supply problems to make the low end more profitable. No one, including AMD, is able to make up for an INTC supply shortage. INTC can create a shortage if they want to. By doing this, INTC can continue to grow profits even though they don't own the high end.>

This is plausible but I would very seriously doubt if this happened. What I think happened in Q1 was Intel just cut back on Celerons and moved that capacity to CuMines - this created a shortage that ended up lifting Intel's ASP substantially at the same time having the effect of lifting K6 sales.

<I think this would be a very good strategy for INTC to take given the current situation. Obviously, this would also be very good for AMD.>

I have maintained for a while and continue to feel that AMD should just chop off K6 sales big time and try to push Athlon hard with aggressive price cutting. AMD started doing that in Q1 but not in a big way. We may see this big time in Q2 (assuming there is not Intel packaging problem). If there is a packaging problem at Intel then AMD does not need to do anything. The CPUs will sell by themselves.

Chuck
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