Bill: No question there are still plenty of sellers, and PLUG going down $10 per day isn't helping, although I consider that one still very overpriced. Nevertheless I think there is some hope short term for FCL, and much more hope longer term.
In the short run, there are three other underwriters that have yet to put out research reports. Given its identification with PLUG, I don't think the First Albany will be stressing the "absurdly cheap compared to the other fc companies" argument, and I don't think Lazard is known for its research. But the analyst from CIBC is well respected, and I think the odds are good he will say something nice reasonably soon.
More important is that FCL has been, I understand, talking with lots of other companies about lots of possible projects and relationships. I don't know more than that, but it seems plausible that top management, with the road show behind them and the money in the bank, can focus on that now. I therefore wouldn't be surprised to see some positive announcements coming along.
And the long term case remains excellent. If any fc company deserves a valuation in excess of $1 billion at this stage (and I am not sure any of them do yet) it should be FCL because of its potential to get a very significant share of a market measured in the many tens of billions per year, and the limited number of companies capable of competing with FCL for that market. |
