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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc
ATHM 20.93-3.2%Feb 3 3:59 PM EST
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To: ayahuasca who wrote (20973)4/17/2000 1:48:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (2) of 29970
 
You shouldn't buy until this downside ends, bounces up substantially, and then goes down for a successful test. It is very difficult to know when the successful test is successful. In any case it's going to take some time to accomplish this.

You want so badly to buy isn't a good sign. Ralph Bloch mentioned this morning that as long as this attitude persists in you, the market will persist downward. There is much to be said for this view. That's often how it works, but at this point, there is a very rapid rise in bearish sentiment as you can hear on CNBC.

I think we're sliding home now. Most of the greed has been squeezed out. Bloch's sentiment requirement can be accomplished by sideways action. People will grow progressively bearish as they realize they can't expect a rebound back up into great expectations. This is what happened after '87 which from personal experience is the best parallel without the same intensity. Actually, this down side is much like all of them. Garden variety.

Although the '71 parallel is fading fast there is still a chance that the market will recover rapidly. What's defeating this possibility is pure psychological reaction. It was psychology that pushed up the wild valuations in the Net or new economy plays, and now it is psychology that is spilling over into the business aspect of these companies. They're vulnerable where most buckets aren't. ATHM is actually not in the Net category although it is being bagged currently as though it is. ATHM is more of a CSCO type play and an anti-recession play. Unfortunately, it's being thrown to the dogs with the Nets.
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