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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.035-9.1%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4218)4/17/2000 2:44:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (2) of 34857
 
Is this how the hedging starts? I thought that the statement was meant to show that Qualcomm can compete in the W-CDMA chipset market as well as the cdma2000 chipset market. If it can't - it's not going to be the leading 3G telecom company. Not even close. So much for "CDMA is Qualcomm".

Qualcomm's future earnings growth projections are based on the assumption that it will be a major force in the third generation chipset market. If W-CDMA becomes the only global standard and the W-CDMA chipset market fragments, those earngings projections fly out the window.

The licensing income will be really good - but nowhere near good enough to justify Qualcomm's pretensions of being the next Microsoft. The truly dominant 3G players will be the companies that manufacture the network and handset equipment.

That's the Nokia angle. In a very short time, W-CDMA sales will dwarf second-generation CDMA network sales internationally. And at that point Nokia may well be the world's leading CDMA company - as measured by sales.

And when the "CDMA is Nokia" scenario unfolds - it happens because Nokia was clever enough to bypass second-generation CDMA and leap directly into W-CDMA. The third generation equipment sales is going to be the Armageddon of the telecom market share competition. At this stage we will see who's who and what's what.

The only question here is how long it will take until the US telecom analysts wake up and smell the latte. God knows it took long enough before the GPRS situation finally dawned on them.

Tero
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