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Technology Stocks : EXLN - Excelon

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To: Keith Monahan who wrote (432)	4/17/2000 6:26:00 PM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (2) of 811

Certainly in the finance industry I would say that 90% of the software spend is on packaged software, and only 10% is on in-house development. That leaves 10% of the market. Then the chances of getting an in-house project off the ground with (say) EXLN instead of ORCL is about 1%. It doesn't matter that EXLN has better technology, because the CEO who you promote as the ideal customer couldn't understand the technology. And ORCL's sales rep just took him to lunch last week and promises that he can give just as much head-count reduction as EXLN anyhow (once again, whether this is true or false is irrelevant to who gets the sale when the decision maker has little grasp of technology). That leave 1% of 10%, i.e. one-thousandth of the market as the maximum potential penetration. I think that helps to explain whay this company has actually shown negative revenue growth over the past 5 quarters. If you have better technology, you should sell through technologists. If you have a better brand, you should sell through the CEO. As a first-order approximation, EXLN does not have a brand. I would wager that way less than 1% of CEOs have ever heard of the company.

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