Actually, Pomp, I think that the last hour rally were "fat bears" covering their bets, and once they are gone, and the earnings fires are gone as well, we go back down. Right now, I feel that if we can "take out" the early April lows (3650 to 3730 plus, depending on whether you take intraday or closings), we will be fine for a run to about 4390 or so (give or take 50 points) on the NAZ, which is not a "bad move from where we are. Furthermore, very short term we will be under the influence of this week expiration, and due to the large decline this influence should be positive. If we fail to get above the earlyApril Lows before the end of this week, I think that the "late April" rally I expected will not materialize. I do not have good tidings for May which I believe will be quite weak (and finally will get me my GTC at $122 or so). As for RMBS, we should have at least another $20 left in this rally, and if we can close any day above $183, we should have clear sailing to about $230.
Zeev |
