Lane,
Anyone who hasn't given up on this one yet may be in for an interesting though slow climb.
Stephens' reiterated buy with target of $160 this morning:
stephens.com
Shares were at about 24 at the time, closed about 10 higher than that.
The market is going to realize before long that the companies in real trouble are the ones who are (1) not adequately funded to ride out a period of capital unavailability combined with operating losses; (2) overly dependent on other dot-coms and New Economy companies as customers during their start-up and building phases (because some of those customers will soon be vaporized by the marketplace); and (3) charging for something others will do for free.
Clarus is ok on all three counts. In retrospect, it was a stroke of great luck (I won't call it genius) that the secondary was at the market's exact high point. That cash can cover three to five years of projected operating losses, maybe more, and in the meantime the market was selling for $24 a share a company that has about $15 a share just lying around while revenues are ramping up nicely. The customer base, both current and projected, are established traditional companies, who are benefitting from the strong economy and not subject to the market's fluctuations since they will continue to be going concerns.
The weakness right now is that the momentum has been downward, but how far from the bottom could we be? This morning, the answer was no more than $24. But I think we just saw the bottom in this one, and while $160 strikes me as unlikely this year, $100 does not.
Any thoughts, or are you permanently out of this one?
TIA,
MAD DOG |
