I'd love to write the cover for Biz Week, problem is they are still choking on the last one I wrote:"The New Reborn Bull Market", back in Jan 00. And it is a New Bull Market, just at the beginning it's range bound.
Anywho, it's easy to say that all those factors are taken into account when pricing gold. But the problem arise in the marginal effects, that people precieve, that also exists. This thread ranges from the:"It's time" groupies, to the:"The aliens took it all", and the:"It's not even there". You can pick anything you want, including hogs, and cloak a relationship to gold with it. I come from the realists point of view. If gold is like a currency, it MUST behave as a currency. Supply and demand are the precieved limits of the margins. Where it goes from here, is obvious to me... I made my prediction, and when you should place your bets. I'm happy to be sitting in another investment until then. I shall not give what base my model analysis on, but gee, it works. Ever manipulation from ECB's and PDG into the futures markets have been but a shorters rally. It's always comes done.
Message 12302477
Gold's only hope for the year 2ooo is M2, M3 and the ratios between.
If you look at the M3, you'd have noticed a large build up in reserves. The solution to this is the M2. WE can expect a rapid rise in M2 in early 2ooo. The FRB uses M2 and M3 to control currency and inflation. Inflation is on the downside since less spring. True inflation {not CPI} is still running around 5.25% as measure in monetary excess terms. This suggests a M2 pump, which will deflate the M3 curve. This should result in much higher earnings. But will the M2 is pumped the POG may see a rise to $290 range. But rest assured, if the M2 increases are not compounded, the POG will deteriorate to new multi decades lows. The long term POG is still in a downtrend. I suspect that come Jan 2ooo you will see a concerted effect of currencies transaction by the G7 to lower the yen, and finally bust the trend. This is what CB do, bust trends. The bull market is alive and well.
Hutch
PS: Enigma, that is part of the post you wanted me to find. Looking for the rest.
Irrational Exuberance => Complacent Apathy |
