If the demand growth meets projections, then the chance of overcapacity prior to 2005-2006 seems slim according to the following- look at the projected fabs and actual for '99 vs. the yearly average.
'Greenfield' fab projects start to rise, but still fall short of yearly average
By J. Robert Lineback
Semiconductor Business News
(04/17/00, 03:09:04 PM EDT)
STUTTGART -- Despite a recent wave of wafer fab announcements, semiconductor makers are still not running at full strength when it comes to
building new chip-processing plants.
Statistics from M+W Zander Facility Engineering GmbH show 20 new wafer fabs being built in 2000, but only 13 were under way last year. Around
28 new "greenfield" plants are expected 2001 and 32 more in 2002, according to Harald Binder, executive vice president of corporate strategic
technologies at M+W Zander, a subsidiary of Jenoptik AG, based here.
The industry usually averages about 30 new plants a year, said Binder, during a presentation at the recent Fourth Annual Fab Management Forum in
Grenoble, France.
Chip industry spending on cleanroom facilities and buildings is expected to rebound to about $5.9 billion in 2000 from just $3.7 billion last year. Capital
spending on cleanroom facilities and plant buildings (excluding production tools and systems) was at $6.0 billion in 1998, Binder said. But spending on
semiconductor facilities will jump nearly 58% to $9.3 billion in 2001 worldwide, followed by 17% to $10.9 billion in 2003 worldwide, predicted the
M+W executive.
Currently, the world has 187 eight-inch (200-mm) wafer fabs, he said. About 450 fabs are running 125- and 150-mm wafers (5- and 6-inch diameter
substrates). And, 244 fabs are processing devices with100-mm (4-inch) substrates. According to M+W, there are still 114 plants running wafers with
less than 4-inch diameters.
With the 300-mm (12-inch) generation just beginning, the industry is still moving production to 200-mm wafers, noted Binder during his presentation at
the forum, which was sponsored by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group.
"Total investments in new wafer fabs will be reaching $3 billion in the next few years, compared to just over $2 billion today," he said. About 70% of
the money spent on fabs goes to processing tools and other equipment in the plant. Another 10% of the costs cover equipment "hook up," estimated
the M+W vice president. Expenditures for the fab building represent about 8% of the total costs. Cleanrooms account for 7% of a wafer fab's total
cost, with utilities taking up 5% of the expenditures, he estimated. |
