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Technology Stocks : Frank Coluccio Technology Forum - ASAP

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To: gilderite who wrote (1426)4/18/2000 7:13:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio  Read Replies (1) of 1782
 
Hello Marco, and Welcome to the thread. Re coax or fiber, one or the other, perhaps I should have made my point in clearer terms.

I certainly would like to see fiber being placed to the door, as you say, but I don't expect that that will be the case in the great majority of cases. At least not very soon, and for the very reasons that you mentioned.

But there is a phase in outside plant evolution that falls in between that of "all coaxial" and that of "FTTH:" It's called, as I'm sure you are already know, Hybrid Fiber Coax, of HFC.

Even thought HFC does not bring fiber directly to the door, it does go a long way to introduce fiber, sometimes very deep fiber, into the operator's architecture, bringing glass directly into the neighborhood and sometimes as close as the curb. Even though this occurs, coax, and in some instances twisted pair, continues to be used in the last several thousand feet, more or less.

It is this intermediate stage, namely HFC, that cable operators will forego if they elect to implement S-CDMA for the sake of a cdma-based channel stuffing solution. This doesn't mean that S-CDMA won't work on HFC systems, but it does mean that if the motivation is to install S-CDMA by the genre of operators who I alluded to in my previous post on this topic (namely those who are financially strapped) in order to avoid building out fiber, then they will not take the measure of installing "even" HFC, much less FTTH, for many years to come.

That is what I object to, that they would not take the first step of introducing fiber into their architectures for years on out. These cable operators would instead be content with all coax, or larger coaxial segments than they would have otherwise, by using S-CDMA, instead of scaling down their home cluster sizes and using deeper fiber builds such as T's LightWire would do, for example.

They would let the depreciation cycle of their TERN investment go through the typical five or seven year cycle prior to ever putting the first meter of fiber into the ground or strung to a pole.

These are only my opinions, and they are devoid of any outside influences that I am consciously aware of. Most of the issues which constitute the disputes over this play focus on matters other than those which I've outlined here.

Additional comments and corrections from yourself and others here are welcome, as always.
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I would rather address your points concerning Terabeam later this evening, lest I lose my standing at the dinner table... smiles

FAC
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