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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 7.070

+3.1%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4256)	4/18/2000 9:44:00 PM
From: Gus	Read Replies (2) of 34857

Bingo! Only Qualcomm is making money in its ecosystem. It's 70+ CDMAOne licensees are not. Well, that is if you don't include balance sheet equity created by stock sales.<g> How sustainable is that? No chip, no gizmo, no PR stunt, no amount of politicking in the world can ultimately change the darwinian way superior businesses will tend to gravitate towards the company or companies taking the lead in creating the superior ecosystem. Nokia is going to be truly a wonder to behold when its handset unit sales exceed the 100 million annual mark and as multiple supply chains become better at plugging deeply into that kind of unit and percentage growth. One good example is the way that traditionally PC-oriented vendors are expanding to absorb the growth of wireless and blend that with the well understood cyclicality and seasonality of PCs. QCOM is last year's news. The real rivalry to watch in the next few years is Nokia vs Motorola competing to turn that initial handset sale into technology relationships. Despite the fact that Motorola has the broader product line and seemingly more opportunities -- e.g. MOT's GIC acquisition and 80 million cable customers in China -- Nokia clearly has the momentum. "I'm amazed at the wimpy approach people take such as 'we mustn't compete with our customers'. If the customers aren't doing it, get stuck in! That's their problem." Sounds like the perfect description of Qualcomm's attitude towards its customers. We probably draw different conclusions from this.

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