Jill: Last week was no fluke. It wasn't a shot across the bow. It was a missile shot at the hull. Sure, we can rally a few hundred points, even go over 4000 again on the Naz. But this will be met by more viscious selling into those upward thrusts. Until the Fed eases up and until we know wage inflation won't spiral upwards, I'm more inclined to go to the sidelines loaded with a lot of dry powder for now. I think we retest the lows or near the lows. I also don't like the void after earnings, the Fed's upcoming meetings in May & June, the summer doldrums, and the "dreaded" Sept-Oct period. I'm not concerned about the long term viability of this market. I'm more concerned about the next 5-6 months which will be important for investors to preserve their capital. That capital preservation is most paramount right now in order to be able to participate in the great 5 month rally I see coming in November to Spring, 2001, what I refer to as the honeymoon period after the election. That's where the bulk of the money will be made, so I'm preparing now. I don't need to drop another 20% or more in capital just to say that I'm still in the game at this present time, but I'm still a loooong-term bull. In addition, Bill Gross of Pimco, probably considered the #1 bond trader & guru in the world has stated the Fed won't ease up until the Fed really slows things down even if that means putting us on the edge of a recession regardless of the markets. I will look to buy beaten down issues on severe corrections like we had last week. I still think those corrections and 200/300 point downward Naz days are not behind us. So I'm getting more patient and not chasing every earnings report or analyst buy recommendation. Good luck to you.
jmanvegas |
