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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 99.85

+6.2%

Nov 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alex who wrote (51696)	4/19/2000 1:57:00 AM
From: PaulM	Read Replies (1) of 116764

TAKE A DEEP BREATH contraryinvestor.com For the record, I think the twenty year stock bull is over. This should lead to a sharp dollar correction, and from there to a freed gold price. Pillar after fundamental pillar is knocked from under the stock market, while the financial pundits manage to focus on everything but what's important. The key reversals are: 1. Oil prices: $25 US per barel, which was a ceiling in the 90's, is now OPEC's floor. 2. The new G-7 policy of "higher savings rates" in the U.S. If savings increase, debt must decrease. The bull market can't survive without debt growth. 3. AG's no bailout policy (admittedly though, this won't last long). 4. The treasury cuts loose Fannie and Freddie. Less liquidity. 5. The Yen carry trade is dead. Even less liquidity. 6. The ECB's policy of "price stability" may tie the Fed's hands somewhat because ECB/US rate differentials will eventually favor a reversal of capital flows back to Europe if there are no corresponding rate rises in the US. Still less liquidity.

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