Hi Dave, Charles & all - Charles, not weird at all :). To a degree, I agree with you. Burn rate and cash determine the survivability of a biotech company. However, beyond survival, obviously a valid premise is required, i.e., the technologies behind the company and the caliber of the scientists implementing the products. However, ultimately, all of these factors feed into the earning model. I got burnt by biotech many times before. Some were cash strapped and some rode on shaky technologies that were only good on paper! It is interesting that many biotechs were strong stockwise at their development stage and sagged badly when they did have product(s) out the door.
That's why I like CEGE so much. She basically covers nearly every aspect of my concerns. Dave is right to accentuate her financial strength and her technological viability. But I also agree with you that looking for p/e is quite meaningless. This goes beyond biotech. Years ago, I bought stocks b/c they were low p/e. Unfortunately, as it turns out, there are reasons why they were so low. Worse, they got lower --- into negative :)! These days, I ve tried to wise up --- PEG.
Ultimately, I am still a value investor in many other sectors, but not biotech. So to me, while CEGE has great value, I am interested more on her growth potentials. In that sense, I am even more bullish than Dave. He may see this as $50 stock. I am looking for multiple homeruns :)! That's why I am willing to stomach this kind of volatility.
best, Bosco |
