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Pastimes : CLOWNS TO THE LEFT OF ME.. JOKERS TO THE RIGHT.

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To: IndexTrader who wrote (49)4/19/2000 8:35:00 AM
From: Topannuity  Read Replies (1) of 306
 
More on the TRIN from Peter Eliades' Service daily comments:

"An excellent
technician by the name of Ralph Bloch was interviewed on CNBC today. He
made an interesting comment about a particular sequence in the Trading
Index. He noted that when a
single day reading greater than 2.0 was followed by a single day reading
less than 0.50, it usually meant there would be no significant downside
pressure over the short term. Ralph said there were 14 instances since
1962 when this particular pattern
had been seen. We checked our data back to 1962 and actually discovered 26
similar instances, but as a general rule his commentary was accurate.
There were 2 prior instances over the past 38 years when such a pattern was
seen but the market still
had a significant decline before it. In both of those instances, however,
the market moved sideways to slightly up over the next several weeks. The
dates of those prior instances were September 9, 1969 and October 10, 1979.
This technical
information jibes rather closely with the information we gave you
yesterday, namely that single day Trading Index readings greater than 4.0
were a good indication that either a bottom had been formed or the market
was close time wise to a bottom of
some kind. What continues to surprise us is that classic Trading Index
readings that are usually seen at market bottoms were not seen over the
past two days. In fact, the intermediate term Trading Index moving average
that we follow, the Open 30
Trading Index, closed today at 0.86, much closer to overbought territory
than to oversold territory. Also, as we noted yesterday, our own New 10
Trading Index has yet to move higher than 1.0. These are factors that
complicate an otherwise
potentially bullish short-term pattern."
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