Dear Elmer:
Let us figure this out.
1) Intel has 9 Fabs making CPUs of all kinds.
2) At least 2 Fabs are as big as the one with the sign.
3) Since Fab with sign has 10K wafers per week, all 9 Fabs have about 50K to 60K wafers per week.
4) According to CC, Intel now about 50% in .18 micron. It will be 90% in three quarters.
5) That about 16% per quarter. Thus start of Q1 was at about 34%.
6) Taking average, we get 42% for Q1.
7) 42% times 50K equals 21K wafers per week.
8) Per Elmer, greater than 10M Coppermines shipped.
9) All .18 micron is Coppermines (No .18 Katmai, etc.).
10) 21K wafers per week times 14 weeks in Q1 means 294K .18 micron wafers in Q1.
11) 10M Coppermines per 294K wafers equals, at least, 34 Coppermines per wafer.
12) 300 Coppermines should fit on a .18 wafer.
13) "Yield" is at least 11.3%.
14) From CC, Q1 shipped about 32 Million CPUs.
15) If all CPUs are Coppermine, 108 Coppermines per wafer MAX!
16) "Yield" is at most 32.4%.
Either the sign is wrong and / or "Yields are fine, demand is good" is complete garbage. If sign is correct and what it refers to is a Coppermine Die (good or not (sign did not say shippable or good (do not put words that are not there))), therefore "Yields" by any normal standard, "Shippable CPU", are "Quite Poor" to "Really Bad".
Feel free to pick apart above. But if you do, rerun calculations to show your conclusions.
Pete |
