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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 76.07-1.1%3:59 PM EST
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To: The Phoenix who wrote (34175)4/19/2000 10:49:00 AM
From: Kashish King  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
Growth rates, ability to capture market share, continued evidence of prosperity...

The trouble is that CSCO is widely believed to be priced for perfection for the next 10 years or more. They really have to keep increasing market share, keep growing at the same double-digit rates (increasingly difficult) keep out the competition (that's not happening) and above all, hope there is no inflation and so on. More importantly, CSCO'S stock price would have to remain exactly where it it during that 10 year period to keep it in line with performance. Is that what you mean by a 10 year investments?

I think there's a lot of naivety out there. We're dealing with a company whose market cap is 500 billion when many more companies have phenominally more revenue, profits and potential than this router vendor does. The growth of the Internet has fueled sales of routers. Woefully inadequate products were quickly replaced through acquisitions. That strategy has paid of handsomely. CSCO has 15 billion in sales and might eventually double that. When revenues are starting to flatten, the stock price will then be about 30 to 60 billion. OK, to heck with logic: 120 billion! Thats' about a 70% price drop from these levels.
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