Yo Mephisto!
Well, I think the "wealth effect" was a figment of many imaginations, just like the cycle-free economy. <grin> A hard look, even when we were in the massive run-up, would convince most folks that we were getting ahead of ourselves, as a marketplace. A dose of reality never really hurts in the long run, although I saw where some investors bought a biotech at 270 only to find themselves at 20 or so a week later; yeah, they got hurt bad in the short term.
AMAT was dragged down with the general sell-off, but stayed ahead of the losses in a percentage sense (lower % drop than the market generally). And now that stock-picking is somehow back in vogue (when did it ever go away? <sigh>), AMAT and a few others are doing well. Breadth in the market is hurting, though, and I always think that's a worrisome indication. We may not have reached the real bottom, just a local breather. I'm sure there is more volatility to come, especially in our industry, as I posted about some weeks ago.
Raise rates? Yes, I think you'll see one more bump, just to show us yokels that the Fed is "staying the course." But then flat, maybe a drop before year's end. We take our rates up too high or too fast, it'll impact other more sensitive economies dramatically; I give you Japan as an example. Anybody want to see their fledgling recovery stopped cold? <looking for raised hands>
So another imaginary Figment fades away, and we get back to business. The business of watching AMAT go!
Mitch |
