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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

+0.9%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (34874)	4/19/2000 12:04:00 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (1) of 70976

I've seen other numbers quite like these, Gottfried. If 30+ new fabs get built in the 2002 time frame, then I predict (with some trepidation!) that the next chip oversupply phase of the business cycle is in late 2004. Once all those fabs get past their test lots (Pavement Lots, some call'em), and begin serious production at >60% of their nameplate capacity. Shrinking geometries are still part of the game too, and when we combine the expected 2 such "generations" of shrink by 2004 with the added toolsets, I think we'll be there. So looking out to 2006 and beyond for the next downturn is not good, in my opinion; one could trip over the pit at our feet while watching the horizon. (Not that THAT has ever happened before....) Mitch

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