Elmer:
If I am off the mark, and I have yet to see where, (I gave Intel the benefit of the doubt), PROVE IT! Show me What the real NUMBERS are. From that analysis, from PUBLICLY released information, Intel is getting poor yields. Let's take it from the other direction.
1) From your message, Intel shipped at least 10 million Coppermines in Q1.
2) Yields are fine. I take this to mean, 1 shippable CPU for every 2 die, minimum.
3) Thus 10,000,000 * 2 die equals 20,000,000 die in Q1.
4) From public information, greater than 300 die fit on a wafer. (If there is less, tell me the correct number)
5) Thus, at most, 67K 0.18 micron wafers were used for CPU shipped Q1.
6) There are 14 weeks in Intel's Q1.
7) Thus on an average 5K 0.18 micron wafers were processed.
8) To get 1,000,000 CPUs from one plant at week 7, that plant had to process between 3.3K and 6.7K wafers that week.
9) Thus that plant should be able to supply 8 million good CPUs from week 7 to week 14. If it did not, this goes contrary to all statements of "We are supply constrained".
10) From week 1 to week 6, it is at worst linear from zero to rate at week 7. Thus that plant should have produced 3 million more CPUs for a grand total of 11 Million.
11) I will make an assumption here: Intel shipped no more than 15 Million Coppermines in Q1.
12) All other plants produced, at most, 4 Million Coppermines for Q1.
13) Given 50% yield, they processed in Q1 27K wafers.
14) At 50% conversion end of Q1 per CC and assuming 0% conversion at beginning of Q1, (believe this to be worse case), they can only produce 4K 0.18 wafers per week at end of Q1.
15) Thus capacity of Intel end of Q1 is 10K 0.18 wafers per week.
16) Thus total capacity of Intel is at most 20K wafers, any kind, per week.
17) Intel has about 3.3 times the current capacity of AMD Fab 25. NO WAY!
18) Intel claims to be able to process 60K wafers per week (10x AMD by all accounts).
19) Intel should be at 30K 0.18 wafers per week now.
What are they doing with 20K 0.18 wafers per week? If 16 is true, Intel has been lying to investors for years. I take that it is not true and 19 is true. I also take that Intel had at least the capacity of 10K 0.18 wafers per week at beginning of Q1. Thus Intel had at most 25% Yield or binsplits that tossed at least 50% into the waste bin at a Mhz not able to be sold. Either way, things are "BAD".
Pete |
