On the principle that everything's been posted,
but not everyone has posted it, I blatantly
swiped the following from the Yahoo Cymer board
(which apparently blatently swiped it from another
thread on SI). With thanks to SonOfMotherTrucker
for the reformat (which I then proceeded to
reformat too. ):
A rehash of a post submitted from the SI board
earlier by highstickr. I've fixed the table so
that it is readable and added the averages vs
Cymer at the bottom:
Below is a list of stats on stocks I and a few
friends own or have possible interest in -- many
of them are G/Ks so I thought I would share the
info. A quick explanation of PEG ratios to anyone
unfamiliar, how they're arrived at and the idea
is behind them...
PE/G stands for Price divided by Earnings Growth.
For example, let's look at Microsoft -- it closed
Friday at 74...the concensus of analysts on their
5-yr growth rate is 24.8%. So you divide the price
74 by 24.8% and come up with 1.77 -- that's their
PE/G ratio. (column 6)
Now a quick look at the S&P 500 -- analysts
estimate the SP500 will grow at 15.2% over the
next 5 yrs. The current PE ratio of the SP500
is 26.75 -- so if you divide 26.75 by 15.2 --
you get a PE/G ratio of 1.76 --
Now back to the Microsoft example -- if you
divide MSFT's PEG (1.77) by the S&P500 PEG(1.76)
-- you get 1.01, meaning you can buy MSFT right
now for a 1% premium to buying the S&P 500 index.
(column 7)
The idea is, the lower that last PE/G number is
in column 7, the more "oversold" the stock is
-- but that's assuming that the company meets
their EPS estimate. And of course, a low number
might just as well be signaling trouble/problems
ahead for the company -- like the current litigation
between MSFT and the DOJ.
A high number suggests an "overbought" condition,
or it could also mean that investors expect earnings
to accelerate or perhaps a buyout is in the rumor
mill. Also, as a rule, the higher the quality of a
stock (consistency in earnings & growth), the higher
the premium will generally be.
It's not a cure-all, but a very good place to start
looking for "value" and entry points.
Stock Price 2000 2001 Growth% PEG vs S&P
A 82 1.33 1.95 20.4% 3.02 1.72
AHAA 70 1.14 1.53 31.7% 1.94 1.10
ADBE 97 2.01 2.39 24.9% 1.94 1.10
AMAT 80 2.14 2.94 23.9% 1.56 0.89
BMCS 39 1.75 2.17 27.1% 0.82 0.47
CSCO 57 0.51 0.66 29.6% 3.78 2.15
CNXT 46 0.87 1.10 25.6% 2.07 1.17
C 58 3.22 3.67 14.1% 1.28 0.73
CTXS 55 0.84 1.09 42.9% 1.53 0.87
CYMI 42 1.48 2.26 31.9% 0.89 0.51
CIEN. 88 0.53 0.96 30.8% 5.39 3.06
EMC 110 1.44 1.90 31.0% 2.46 1.40
GMST 41 0.45 0.54 36.2% 2.52 1.43
HLIT 55 0.99 1.20 37.0% 1.50 0.85
INTC. 110 2.92 3.42 19.9% 1.89 1.08
JDSU. 79 0.37 0.55 46.5% 4.59 2.61
LHSP. 92 1.09 2.10 54.0% 1.56 0.89
MSFT 74 1.68 1.92 24.8% 1.78 1.01
NT. 91 1.31 1.65 20.1% 3.46 1.96
ORCL 63 0.63 0.79 24.8% 4.03 2.29
PPDI 15 1.22 1.49 25.5% 0.48 0.27
QCOM 105 1.05 1.40 35.7% 2.80 1.59
QLGC 62 0.74 0.92 30.6% 2.74 1.56
SEG. 39 0.56 1.29 18.2% 3.83 2.17
VRTS 82 0.49 0.67 47.6% 3.52 2.00
VTSS 54 0.56 0.96 38.9% 2.48 1.41
KOPN. 47 0.45 0.95 45.1% 2.32 1.32
ERICY. 71 0.69 1.19 22.2% 4.64 2.63
SFA. 51 0.76 0.97 22.2% 3.02 1.72
WIND. 29 0.56 0.82 30.4% 1.70 0.97
XLTC 28 1.20 1.40 22.0% 1.06 0.60
Average 2.47 1.40
Median. 2.32 1.32
Cymer 0.89 0.51 |
