<It has nothing to do with earnings and everything to do with Tech and the overall market.>
JimL - very true...
I also think that the E&P's have made a heady run here. We need a new set of buyers to rotate into the patch to buy NBL EOG BR - the longtime energy funds & investors like us; do not view these stocks as cheap - we own then 30-50% cheaper in many cases & are not going to chase them here.
The need a pause that refreshes - and they are going to retrace & get sold off on profit taking on this good earnings season.
But; be smart imho - use this as an opportunity; take the profits and rotate to better value's within the NG subsector - ie: BSNX FST etc vs. EOG NBL BR; or buy some integrateds-mini-majors like TX P UCL KMG OXY all cheap here. OXY blew out the numbers and still took a pause here... no big deal.
I do think that there is virtually a no-brainer opp in taking at least some (if not nearly all) profits in the E&P's and "re-rotating" back to driller service names. If one stays in E&P's, small caps , laggards & the mini-major/integrateds are the only place where value is left. Our fav's like XTO UPR EOG NBL BR APA VPI have moved big - and aren't automatic 30-50% upside plays here thru year end, like many of the driller/service names are imho.
I'd peg the E&P's at 20-30% upside & the driller/service as 35-50% upside to year end - at least a 1.5 to 1 risk vs. reward upside imho.
This long Easter weekend could build some real interesting confidence back into Investor Sentiment come monday. Many, many people will be talking about the market after Church Service, family reunions etc - the NASDQ Crash will be a big topic of conversation - if we end the week on a good note; the "BUY THE DIP" investor may come back with a vengence monday & we turn marketwide & run up.
OSX is in great shape here - Nat Gas is at "Dance on the Table - euphoria" levels and Oil is firming fine. I still say as soon as the market jitters settle - maybe with a good OPEC compliance report, or good API's next week; we turn & run 30%+ non-stop here.
This selloff has been a great opp for me; entered into partial positions in tech & Inet names that I am happy as can be to be back in - on a long term hold basis. The tech & Internet Story is still in the 3rd inning - at the latest. This was a gift for many of us who have missed the Tech-Internet Train here. I am not talking about the make believe dot.coms; but the chips stocks, network storage stocks, optical, wireless, broadband, media & cable , telecomm - I've picked up a basket of 15-20 stocks from WCOM, GBLX,LVLT,CWA & AOL to CMGI VTSS RFMD WIND NTAP GMST & some speculative high tech - cutting edge plays like SVNX PHCM PKTR. - it was truly Xmas in April imho...
Today; Waiting on:
PGO 14 3/4
FLC 17 7/8
ESV 28ish
OXY 19's
BSNX - on any weakness |
