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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

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To: JMD who wrote (8954)	4/19/2000 5:56:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	of 13582

Mike, the big bids for spectrum in the UK are going to accelerate the introduction of WWeb to Europe. It will be CDMA. They will not dither around waiting for something either. They will take the first 3G CDMA solution which is functioning. That is very likely to be the venerable Mighty Q! version. Maybe Vodafone [note correct spelling] will take two bites at it; first introducing 1X and HDR or whatever nomenclature is fashionable just now, then upgrade to full-blown cdma2000 in 3 years or so. Some commentators have said the high costs will delay the rollout because the service providers will be short of money. They misunderstand how money works. The higher the value, the more frenzied the effort to justify the expense. The pork barrel clubs will be looking with awe. The Q! proposal for spectrum in Japan is going to rock the boat in a big way. Japan will have to go to a spectrum auction [there is vast money to be made there with a spectrum auction instead of a beauty contest - which must surely involve huge pressure to corrupt payments for special favours]. New Zealand was due for an auction and no doubt the government is rubbing their greedy paws with glee [failing to realize that few people with lots of spectrum does NOT make for huge prices]. You can safely bet that CDMA in some form is going to enter Western Europe very fast and very soon based solely on the money being moved in the 3G auctions. There is going to be a LOT of pressure for early demonstration of 3G infrastructure and handsets. If W-CDMA is not ready to rumble, it will be left behind. I think Vodafone must have a very clear plan right now of what they are going to do and when and it will NOT depend on any pie-in-the-sky technology which might or might not be invented in 2001 or 2002. It will involve a dramatically harmonized 3G standard. They want global reach and committed customers. A warning though, it is not always that huge cost begets rapid action. Check out the torturously slow rollout of Globalstar service while billions in capital and billions in minutes rot in the sky. The Globalstar shareholders have voted with their feet on that effort. For an even gloomier analogy, check out Iridium! 3G in Europe could yet do an Iridium [I doubt it] with technology which doesn't work, overheats the handsets, causes flat batteries and costs heaps. Vodafone might less disastrously copy the Globalstar model, with great technology, but poor marketing and gateway development. Or 3G might just be a wild success. I suspect wild success. Mqurice PS: Hey watch it Bux! <Even Maurice has a non-functioning prototype 3G handset. Let's see, I think he developed that over 5 years ago. > What do you mean 'even'? And what do you mean 'non-functioning'? Admittedly not all functions are working, but VW40 has NOT beaten me yet. It was actually in mid 1996 that Anita [TM] prototype was first developed though the idea was invented by me way back in the 1870s, before even Ericy claimed to invent CDMA [which was not until the 1890s].

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