Re: However, even after that, the war will be FAR from over. Itanium, Willamette, and Foster are on their way, and it's unclear to me whether Mustang and Sledgehammer will be competitive or not.
I agree that it's an open question. I expect that, just as PIII was capable of, at least, keeping Intel in the game, so will Mustang and Thunderbird keep AMD in the game. The big change IMHO is that AMD now has two independent design centers to keep new products coming. And I think that it's often forgotten when comparing AMD's 1 (now 2) major FABs and 3 minor FABs to Intel's 15 or so, that Intel's count includes flash (where AMD's flash FABs are part of FASL) and chipsets (where AMD uses VIA and Samsung/Alpha processor to FAB those chips).
So the AMD "virtual company" facing Intel is quite a bit bigger than it appears at first glance. Two more quarters like the current one will leave AMD cash rich and well positioned as a long term competitor to Intel - something Intel hasn't faced in many years. If Intel pulls ahead a little for a couple of quarters it won't destroy AMD any more that the current quarters have destroyed Intel. That fear of imminent destruction has held back AMD for a decade, causing them to lose sales and forcing them to accept lower prices for equivalent product. Those fears are finally being put to rest and that is the war that I think AMD has won.
Regards,
Dan |
