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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65021)4/19/2000 9:15:00 PM
From: RWS  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
I interpreted the Feb bounce as a 3 wave (abc) correction from the low in Dec. of the C wave down from May 99 peak. The price spike saw a divergence with the daily stochastic which made a lower high. This was confirmed by the next day's reversal. Maybe that buying was a combination of speculators, short covering, and early buying by some folks in the know.

What I want and got is a successful retest of the low with a bullish divergence in stochastic- that gave me the alert. Then the stochastic crossover on the daily and weekly charts confirmed, as did a trendline crossover on the 21 day CCI and a higher low on the 13 week CCI.

The price is now sitting right under the downtrend line which touches the Aug and Feb highs on the daily chart. If it breaks over that, then the downtrend on the weekly chart at about 22 will be the next likely resistance. If it doesn't break over then it could possibly revisit lows or stall a while, in which case I would look at reallocation of resources (g).

I would protect against catastrophic risk with a stop a couple ticks under the low. As for opportunity risk, I can't argue your point there. I really don't know, except that this is the only chart of the ones I follow in this sector that is telling me to buy. I'm patiently waiting for the others, following a discipline of limited portions of the portfolio for each stock, no matter how bullish.

Regards,

RWS
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