Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (2812)	4/19/2000 9:35:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) of 3543

Remember that book was written in 1934, after 5 years of riding the sawtoothed version of the slippery slope, as such it has a bit of a bearish view. I find it interesting that many of the examples of irrational exuberance(to use a 90's word g) given in the text are tame compared to some the recent & current valuations. I'm of the opinion that when we do arrive at a bear market (with the economy heading for the dumper) the run won't be on the banks as it was in the depression, the run will be on the stock market when the guy on the street realizes that stocks only go up when more money is flowing in. Once the market collapses to 25-30% of its orignal value we will experience a collapse of spending, similar to what the Japanease are trying to get out of now, due to older American's going into a hyper savings mode in attempt to offset the great loss of portofolio value they will have experienced. All out of a panic to assure themselves they'll be able to live comfortably in retirement. It's that or forget about the thought of fighting inflation, turn on the printing presses and have a free for all. mad2 I liken where we are at to approaching a blind curve while driving through the mountains on a two lane while passing a 18 wheeler. AG is in the drivers seat with one foot on the break and the other on the gas not sure of what might be comming his way. Record trade deficit, signs of inflation, tight labor markets and the junk bond market in a funk with equities still at nosebleed levels. Oh well, its all been said before....History does repeat itself

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