Ausdauer, calendar 2000 Earnings projections:
Thanks for the kind words.
The key to the 2nd half of the year is the growth in
megabytes from quarter to quarter. The growth has been
and will remain constant at about 40% per quarter.
The good news is because the base is getting so much larger,
the effect on the bottom line is magnified, particularly now
that operating expenses are covered.
At a conservative growth rate of 35%, we are looking at
Product revenues in Q3 of 177M and 239M in Q4.
With a conservative gross margin projection of 32%,
Product revenues will contribute 56.6M and 76.4M in gross
profit Q3 & Q4, respectively.
Assuming 12M in license revenue and 5.6M in Interest
per quarter, if you crank the numbers, you come up with
EPS for Q3 of .42 and Q4 of .57 That gives you $1.49 for
calendar 2000.
Look for a wave of analysts revising their numbers upward.
I feel these are the absolute low-end numbers for Q3 & Q4.
If you plug in a more likely 40% growth rate, and margins
in the 35-40% range, it will make a big difference.
WHAT CAN SCREW THIS UP? Not counting China invading Taiwan,
only one thing. In the first half of the year, we have seen
price per megabyte remain flat. It appears very likely that
it will remain relatively flat for the rest of the year. But
if that changes and it begins to fall, it would change these
numbers dramatically. |
