Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.23

+1.6%

11:53 AM EST

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To: Jacob S. Rosenberg who wrote ()	4/20/2000 6:06:00 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Gary, More numbers to consider. First let's consider the current growth rates of some big techs. MSFT 22% INTC 12% IBM 7%, Revenue MSFT only 23 bil, INTC 30 bil, IBM 88 bil. Notice how big techs growth rates seem to decrease as the revenue gets huge! So let's put CSCO's rate at 22% in 2005. That would still be fantastic for a company with over 60 billion in revenue. So here's a CSCO 5 year growth projection. 2001 - 50% 2002 - 45% 2003 - 38% 2004 - 30% 2005 - 22% still great for a company with 50 bil revenue. That would put revenue at about 76.17 bil in 2005. I think that would be a fantastic success for CSCO. Truely fantastic. And if they manage to maintain earnings at todays 16.9% That's would give about 12.8 bil P/E of 50 = $92 a share or a 7% return on your investment from todays prices P/E of 30 = $56 a share or a nasty investment Hows that for being fair? I think my growth rate projections are still very generous. I think it's an ideal world scenario. I think if you get your 100 dollars a share this year you will be lucky. Anyone who buys at that level is a fool and will be left holding a big fat bag. Hey, a hole pile of people where dumb enough to pay over $100 for COMS. You called that one too. We shall see. I would predict that if the market retests the lows in the next weeks and it will break 3000. It will then test the 2200-2500. CSCO will test $55. I think it will break it and then it's to $45. There I will consider buying for longterm. I expect that the pressure of CSCO going through $55 will really hurt a lot of other techs as the weight of CSCO drives the NAZ futures down. I would rather pick and choose some stocks that I feel will be really under valued at that time. More than playing the short on CSCO, I want to see it fall back into line. Most techs have been beaten up pretty good already. With CSCO as a huge chuck of the NAZ 100 it will crush the futures as it falls and most techs with it. I am looking to by the small caps when CSCO hits bottom. Then, I to will retire to a beach on an island in the south pacific. Bambs Capitulate!!!!

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