WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 159.55

-1.8%

9:40 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Cardin Drake who wrote (10550)	4/20/2000 6:31:00 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) of 60323

Cardin, At a conservative growth rate of 35%, we are looking at product revenues in Q3 of 177M and 239M in Q4. You spent some time with your analysis. Your revenue projections seem very, very bullish (read unrealistic). Also, I see EPS at $1.40+ as extremely optimistic. Conversely, I feel $1.00 a share is overly pessimistic given we just witnessed at $0.21 Q1 fully-diluted. Adding together and dividing by two I see earnings or $1.20 this year as "doable" and realistic. I am making current purchases on the risky assumption that the progress made in legal matters will lead to previously uncalculated licensing fees in 2001 or 2002. I am willing to assume this risk and am comfortable with it. I also realize that the company will not comment on ongoing legal issues and that any licensing agreements will be kept close to the chest. Thus, any additional royalty or licensing revenues will not be telegraphed until they are safe in the SNDK coffers. That may not be until next year or even 2002 in a worst case scenario. I believe Lexar will have a difficult time in US Patent Court and that invalidating the '987 places a large burden on Lexar both in the form of legal fees and commitment of engineering talent. I also believe that the planned IPO will force the hand of Lexar to settle. A jury trial jeopardizes the very existence of this company. And without taking the company public I don't see how Lexar will be able to finance the needed growth in the upcoming quarters. All of this is 100% conjecture, of course. Ausdauer

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next