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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.94

+3.1%

2:13 PM EST

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To: bambs who wrote (34259)	4/20/2000 6:37:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Well, If you think CSCO is $56 in 5 years WHY would you buy IF it went to $45? You don't believe your own analysis??? Do you? Fwiw pulling numbers our of your hat don't impress me and showing revenue decreasing begining next FY when all data suggests it is increasing seems like a leap of faith. What is the total market for software in 2005? What is the total market for chips in 2005? What is the total market for services in 2005? What is the total market for networking in 2005? YOu're projecting CSCO valuations based upon valuations of companies in other sectors all with differing growth rates and expectatations. Until you understand this and begin to measure CSCO based upon growth in the networking market you'll never get to an accurate figure. As I mentioned earlier the networking market is projected to grow to over $1T by 2005. At 10% share = 100B you get a share price (17% Margin) of about $130..more that your 12% target. Is 10% market share unreasonable????? Not sure... only time will tell. BUT, before you throw more calculations out which are based on companies not in the networking sector perhaps you should compare CSCO to a JNPR, FDRY, ATON, EXTR, RBAK, CMTN and see what looks like a better investment... or should we all exit this sector altogether because when we project growth rates from differing sectors we look overpriced. I suppose the entire sector is overprices. Perhaps there is a reason? Perhaps there are projections which most believe in that support the expected growth going forward? OG

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