That's nothing. Step back and look at the big picture! AOL also has announced AOLTV as a competitor for Web TV, AOL Satellite TV, and a new hand held AOL device. AOL will be ubiquitous if they aren't already.
One and one half million users is a drop in the bucket for AOL. We are talking here about network users at any speed not just dial ups. Dial up is just today. AOL has users and the largest network on the planet. They have much more than roadrunner. They conducted a large scale DSL beta test which was completed last fall and are building out their network for DSL as we speak.
AOL net is the largest single network entity on the planet. They can upgrade their current users much faster than Excite@home can grab new ones and they are not limited to cable as @home is.
The public business plan is nothing like the one in the war room... And this is war! Excite@home has been shaking in their boots for a year now. Their share holders are just now waking up to the real threat.
AOL has more than 22 million subscribers and adds more subscribers every quarter than ATHM has in total. AOL sees broadband as a simple network upgrade. AOL partnered with Hughes for satelite access which is still another grave threat.
ATHM and it's shareholders, in the past, have viewed cable as the be all end all. Not! ATHMs management took the view that the cable companies should promote the product while ATHM pocketed the dough. It doesn't work that way. AOL pays dearly for each subscriber.
Not to worry. There's lots of money behind ATHM, but build out at any cost has to be the current strategy, not profitability.
And by the way, AOL is more likely to buy out T than ATHM. They would get ATHM for pocket change in the transaction. Think about it--the little bbs company that bought out Time Warner, AOL Net, ICQ, Netscape, Compuserv, and on and on and on...
ATHM has the broadband lead now though, and the support of the cable companies and T, so at these prices, it's time to back-up the truck!
--Dave |
