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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 23.48

+1.2%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: gpowell who wrote (21112)	4/20/2000 11:03:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (3) of 29970

Profitability will be reached in 2003 That statement says "sell me". What the market has been hinting now for several months is that these future ideas about profitability are nothing more than hand waving and mumbojumbo. The valuation models which tried to factor in the next 5 years are no longer believed, and stocks valued on them were, and will continue to be sold. This is a shift that's going to stick because it's a shift which brings the market closer to a reality we're in need of. Interpret that how you will. To value something like tech as if even two years hence can be known is misguided, and the numbers will be guided lower as the future fails to confirm the past. The market is again beginning to assign future risk to tech. It has much more risk left to assign, that's the shift that's underestimated because it was soooo good when risk was ignored. In any case, you'll soon get actual confirmation that projections even into 2001 were overly optimistic all around. Of course, much disbelief at first, but the market has already spoken. I have no position in ATHM.

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