Tad, RE: "Raw"
As processes improve, less raw material is used. How much did the processes improve?
RE: "a little crazy to run with only "
Sounds like you're not big on JIT manufacturing?
RE: "If you're effectively the only game in town"
I don't think you meant to imply AMD is not a feasible alternative?
RE: "you're" now means "you were" instead of "you are")"
Intel's not going out of business.
RE: "Given that the management had been talking about a strong second half for all of last year, why were operations so stessed"
How long does it take to get a fab out? How many fabs does Intel have now? Hasn't Intel's spending on fabs essentially doubled in two years?
RE: "to meet a typical ramp in demand?"
Who said it is a typical ramp up in demand? In the CC, they implied their demand was high, so please prove your point, which contradicts what they said in the CC.
RE: "4Q99 was up only 8% Y/Y"
YOY on what? Content not clear.
RE: "multiple in excess of 40x"
I remember back when INTC wouldn't budge above a PE of 20-22 and MSFT would hover around 25 to 35. Value investing hasn't been in favor over the last 5 years, which isn't necessarily a good thing.
RE: "either execution at Intel will improve"
Most likely.
RE: "price correction"
Not an issue for a LT
RE: "why did a company with $20B+ of cash and securities"
You know as well as anyone, that securities are not cash. Generally speaking about startups, pre-IPOs have FRORs, post-IPOs have lock-downs. Not exactly immediately liquid. Also, securities can be an investment in the future.
RE: "fail to invest in property, plant and equipment in 1998-99"
I'm sure you remember the semiconductor recession. It was amazing how the Internet was booming, meanwhile Intel was in the middle of a semiconductor recession. So, are you suggesting they should have been investing in capacity like mad back then? IMHO that risk would have been significantly greater. There's a difference between taking a risk (Intel) and gambling (AMD).
RE: "How did the planning process go so astray?"
If Intel had announced plans to build up capacity like mad during the semiconductor recession, I wonder what you would have said back then?
RE: "I'd love to know what went on."
How come you didn't ask this at the CC?
RE: "And the investment stuff is all about the momentum"
ST, not LT. Your ratings (I seem to recall) are only 1 year out (based upon 5-year projections). One-year is a bit on the ST side.
Regards,
Amy J |
