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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 35.84+0.3%2:03 PM EST
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To: Barry Grossman who wrote (102764)4/21/2000 11:57:00 AM
From: Tony Viola  Read Replies (3) of 186894
 
Barry,

Borrowed this post from Dipy, one of the top contributors to the LSI thread. Check out this quote from a Newsweek article:

Message 13464006

Interesting info about growth stocks and their subsequent performance after they have become the "darlings" of the crowd. The latest "Newsweek" (the one that has the recent stock-market plunge as the cover story) has an article that mentions a study that looked at the 34 hottest growth stocks at the start of 1980 and what happened to them in the next 20 years. Of the 34 stocks, 22 were acquired, merged, or went out of business. Of the remaining 12, only one outperformed the market over the next 20 years -- Intel. The other 11 underperformed the market.
So, those are odds of 1 in 34. Not good, to put it mildly! And don't forget this -- the next 20 years saw the greatest bull-market of all time, and yet, what we see is a truly pathetic performance from what were once the hottest stocks. So, even if you believe that this bull-market will keep going and going and going, you still have almost no hope of outperforming or even matching the market if you follow the trend and invest in the hot "darlings" of today.

I will email the author and try to get the names of the 34 companies. That should be interesting.

Tony
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