The success of JINI and client side JAVA are both critical to SUNW. To a great degree, the stock price already assumes some of this revenue. JINI uses the first power line carrier system that can run at a reasonable speed over AC power lines. The technology is called LonWorks and has been available from ELON for years. Their (ELON) first real success was on a project called EABS (Electronic Air Brake System) which is now owned by Rockwell. I worked with the company that developed the system prior to it's sale to Rockwell. It was basically an ABS system for trains using a high voltage line to carry the logic signals. EABS, to the best of my knowledge, works great and this is due to a robust ELON chip set and software. In other words, IMO, JINI is built on a very solid foundation.
There are three fundamental methods targeting our homes. They all operate on the assumption that we will not want to add wiring. Some use our existing twisted pair phone lines which will have limitations in older houses due to minimal jacks and low quality wiring (many well below Cat3 standards). Others want to use AC power line carrier (JINI) which gets around the jack availability and has no requirements for specific impedance in the wiring. The third is wireless. Obviously no wiring requirements, but Bluetooth (BT) is limited to short distances which, in most houses, will not cover dwelling from "end-to-end." There are also potential interference problems which is why BT was designed to be a very short haul technology.
There is no question in my mind that the "remote control" for the home network will be wireless. BT also has the advantage of already being used in Europe and is widely backed by many companies. BT can get past their limited range challenge through the use repeaters. However, it's hard to envision something much simpler than a connection using the existing power cord. So, IMO, the challenge will be between BT and JINI. IMO, telephone wire based networks are fine for your home computers and printer sharing, but they have a problem in addressing devices that don't normally sit by a phone jack. As a result, I think they will be popular for a few years, but be overtaken by either or both, JINI / BT in the longer term. That is unless they offer significant advantages in data rate.
So, at the end of the day, it's going to be a huge battle for the home network. All parties have their advantages as well as limitations. The buggy showing of JINI at COMDEX slowed it's acceptance and momentum significantly, but the other contingencies also had their problems. Benhamou of COMS was trying to demonstrate the simplicity of their product. After repeated failures, he had to have a technician join him on stage to get the system to work. The net result of these poor COMDEX showings was that home networking was slowed in whole versus any one technology gaining advantage. Regards, pmcw |
