I feel strongly that we should raise the objectivity level on this thread. Let's look at your eight points, seven of which sound more like prayers than statements.
1. Softbank is undervalued. Maybe so but what are your numbers? The valuation of CMGI,9984,etc depend to a considerable extent on the enthusiasm of buyers of IPOS because it's through the IPO that the venture capitalist makes money fast. The latter enthusiasm seems to be waning. Of course it may wax again but again we need evidence.
2. Softbank will benefit because would be investors in Hikari Tsushin will put their money into Softbank instead.
This should be true to some extent but perhaps it is at least equally balanced by the tendency of investors to stay away from the sector on account of Hikari Tsushin.
3. Nasdaq resurgence in May. Needless to say there can't be any data to support this guess about the future.
4. The stock will be more affordable to individual investors. This has to be true. But it is not a secret. Presumably it is included in the price of the present stock.
5. 2/3 of the stock will be locked up until June 23. And what happens AFTER that date? Besides, short sales are perfectly possible. The short sales should remove any huge discrepancy.
6. Nasdaq Japan will make Softbank more global. If you mean that Softbank will be listed on Nasdaq and therefore available to investors in the U.S. more easily, there is no problem buying it now. It's not clear that people who buy on Nasdaq will be able to buy Japanese stocks listed on Nasdaq Japan very simply. Besides, according to the head of Nasdaq Japan, Softbank needs to dissociate itself from Nasdaq as much as possible, e.g. by selling most of its interest as soon as possible. Another way would be by not listing there.
7. Institutional repurchases. Which institutions? How soon? Did they announce their plans or have you private information?
8. More and more upgrades. The same as #7. Which brokers? How soon? Did they announce their plans to upgrade or have you private information?
The internet will become important in Japan. Softbank will be a huge beneficiary. This will result in a price rise. But to call out future prices, as you once did for 250000 at the end of February, deceives yourself. With our long lives and relatively comfortable living, everybody we know is well fed etc. we have to be grateful to science. Our ancestors did not have it this good. So let's bring some science into stock discussions. This means evidence, evidence and more evidence. I know that it's easier to criticize than to find important facts and my apologies for only having done the easier thing. |
