Inflationary pressures are MUCH worse than the BLS has been letting on. First of all, the trend in
excluding energy from "core" inflation numbers is ridiculous. Energy works its way into nearly
every form of human economic endeavor, and IS a vital component of inflationary pressures. Wage
inflation has been underreported, in part because employers are substituting payment with equity
rather than cash. When stocks are rising, this income is "felt" by the worker and reenters the
economy (through expanded credit made possible by the options). Anyone who hires in a service
industry (where by far most of the new job growth occurs in the U.S.) can confirm that hiring is
more difficult now than 6 mos ago for most positions, higher starting salaries and bonuses are being
awarded. This has NOT been reflected accurately in the BLS reports, IMO.
You are still looking at the past rather than the future. In addition, our economy is far less dependant upon energy than it was even ten years ago. It is no longer a major factor.
(in terms of "percentage change from baseline") than that seen in the
periods above. When the devices in questioned entered mainstream consciousness, however, they all
served as objects of speculation for the bubbles that developed in their respective eras. The cycle of
monetary expansion, speculation and overtrading (ie, everyone you know suddenly becoming an
investment whiz overnight), scandals, swindles & discredit(which is where we are right now),
revulsion and panic (where we will be in the next 2 mos) and finally contraction and depression
ensued in each case.
Your statement that corruption and greed is more prevalent now and will settle down at a more mature period of this internet development. This in no way has any connection to a depression.
Technology is therefore not a panacea for economic malaise, though it is often purported to be by the
media and by supporters. In the long run, of course, it is beneficial. In the shorter run it has often
proven to be disruptive and destabilizing.
Destructive contruction is ocurring no argument there.
It has been very effective making my industry more efficient.
To summarize: We are in the late stages of an investment bubble. Technology will not save us from
ourselves. Invest accordingly
I do not have all the answers. I can only do the best I can based on the information I have and how I perceive it.
Glenn |
