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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (107044)	4/21/2000 2:49:00 PM
From: boris_a	Read Replies (1) of 1577920

Pravin, AMD at $350/share I try to imagine how many investors would be prepared to pay around $60B for AMD in January01 Of course an investor would consider the long term prospectus of AMD. I`m quite confident that AMD will stay highly competitive at least until 3Q01. To really hamper AMD Intel will need to bring the price for FatWilly systems at least down to the midrange. But until then INTC has a big hole in their roadmap. And honestly I dont believe they can fill this hole with some improved Celeron/PIII steppings. But afterwards, the future remains much more unpredictable now. (Well, I dont dare to say the above statement is a prediction). An investor willing to pay $350/sh must have confidence in AMD engineering being able to sustain a competitive MHz performance for much longer time. Being convinced (by professional experience) that engineering quality doesnt correlate strongly with engineer headcount, I think odds are good. However, one big, big question remains: can AMD enter the corporate market? Frankly, until now we have absolutely no strong indication to believe this. (Of course we all are going to be really happy if this happens). For now, we can only hope that a clear MHz leadership will be sufficient. IMHO, the most important thing until now regarding long term prospectus is the fact that AMD is successful in establishing an independent x86/Windows platform. From now on and given the performance lead until 3Q01 Intel can no longer dictate the direction of the technical development of the platform. This power is going back to the place where it belongs: to the market. (And if VIA wants still to reach out for #1 in the chipset biz, they know very well that they need a strong, competitive AMD. Otherwise Intel can `slam the door` (tm T.Viola) anytime it chooses). If a long term scenario like above gains really nice probability until december already, your $350/sh estimate might be not absurd. Boris

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