MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 662.72

+0.4%

4:00 PM EST

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To: TRINDY who wrote (47496)	4/21/2000 6:51:00 PM
From: David Lee Smith	Read Replies (4) of 99985

15% downside is calculated from my model. It is a combination of valuation compared to T-Bills and 30-year treasuries adjusted for the dollar (foreign yield that may attract foreign capital in our market... look at the US dollar index from October 1999 to present...the foreign money has been driving our markets!!) I also look at the ten biggest stocks in the S&P 500 to gave index fund momentum. Together, through a series of calculations, I get a target price for the market of about 15% lower than today. The indictor changes daily and is not an absolute prediction, but a trend indicator. The trend is down and the risk is high. The model will likely turn positive when the market falls or interest rates fall substantially or the US dollar rallies big. It us a dynamic model. Watch it daily. If you were in the stock market now I'd be hedging with puts, or selling. Best wishes, go.to

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