Here is a second attempt after reading through the 10Q for
Q1 2000.
I made a few adjustments.
1) I lowered the growth in S&M from 3% to 2%.
2) The new revolving line of credit they have looks like it
costs 0.5% even if they don't use it. That amounts to $6,250
per quarter. I'll make the assumption that they don't use it
in 2000, and I added the $6,250 to their interest expense.
With rounding, this still looks the same on the spreadsheet,
but does alter following numbers a bit.
3) The GM discussion confused me. First they referred to it
as "Gross Profit as a percentage of sales", then just Gross
Profit instead of Gross Margin.
Then, in the CC they indicated if encumbrances were absent
they would be comfortable with 42%-45% margins, but the 10Q
indicated "flat or increase slightly when higher margin
navigation products rebound". They did say Communications
margins were getting better as direct costs were reduced 4%.
Looking back to 1997 (when Communications sales were much
lower), I see GMs in the mid-upper 40%s. I decided to leave
my GM estimates alone for now, which rise to 41% by Q1 2001.
4) I changed my third revenue sub category title from "FOG"
to "Sensor" as FOGs appear to be embedded in the other two
categories. This category is for the new Power Industry
sensors or other new sensor products. If anything, the 20%
growth I set may be too conservative, as the market is large
and growth rates for new products can be much higher than
that for a while. But I left it alone in the interests of a
conservative estimate.
5) I dropped Q4 1999 and added Q1 2001. I don't want to go
too far out because of the lumpy military sales, but the
growth rates, if they can be sustained begin to have
dramatic effect here, so I kept the column in.
6) I still leave off taxes even though they state a 38% rate
in the 10Q, because I don't know how to treat tax loss carry
forwards. I'll let others extend this down to bottom line
earnings.
The resulting numbers look even a bit stronger than I
originally posted.
Still just a best effort attempt here. Do you own DD.
Comments are appreciated.
Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 PCT
(000) omitted est est est est chng
Net Sales 5.70 8.35 10.28 12.67 15.61
Communications 4.20 5.25 6.56 8.20 10.25 1.25
Navigation 1.60 2.40 2.88 3.46 4.15 1.20
Sensors 0.70 0.84 1.01 1.21 1.20
Cost of Sales 3.82 5.43 6.48 7.73 9.21
Gross Profit 1.88 2.92 3.80 4.94 6.40
Gross Margin 33% 35% 37% 39% 41%
R&D exp 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.01 0.99 0.98
S&M exp 1.42 1.45 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.02
Admin exp 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 1.00
Income/(Loss)
from Ops (1.14) (0.10) 0.77 1.90 3.35
Other Income (0.21) (0.21) (0.21) (0.21) (0.21)
Income/(Loss)
before Taxes (1.35) (0.32) 0.56 1.68 3.13 |
