Here's the latest on how the sell signal is working for me.
But first, I'll review the performance of the markets
in the past week and over the period since the sell signal.
The US market as a whole went up almost 6% this week.
As of tonight, the US market is 1.3% lower than it was on
1/12/00, when I was first able to act on the sell signal.
Last Friday it was 7.1% lower.
The total international market, as measured by the average
performance of VWIGX and MNIGX, didn't follow the
the US market this week. It is now down 2.1% since
1/12/00, just a little worse than the US market. This
compares to last Friday's reading of down 2.5%.
The European market, as measured by the average performance
of PRESX, VEURX, and FEURX, went up a little more than 1%
from last week; the average is up 1.2% since 1/12/00, as
compared to down 0.1% last week.
Here are the data related to the above paragraphs.
% Diff. Since 1/12/00
Wilshire 5000 -1.3%
VWIGX 2.4%
MINGX -6.6%
Average of VWIGX and MNIGX -2.1%
VEURX -2.4%
PRESX -2.2%
FEURX 8.3%
Average of VEURX, PRESX, FEURX 1.2%
I didn't buy or sell this week: The only purchase I've
made since the sell signal was last Friday, when I bought
the UTEK back that I sold for $16+ a couple of weeks ago.
Since I "locked in" my benefit on that stock, the table
below includes my actual profit on the UTEK trade.
All in all this week, I'm 14% better off than I would have
been if I had just held everything. That's a little worse
than last week, when I was 18.1% ahead.
Here are my sales since the signal, as well as the percent
increase (negative numbers indicate a decrease) in the
prices since I sold.
Security Sell Date %Diff. Since Sale
PBTCX 01/12/00 -5.8%
SRFCX 01/12/00 2.5%
MNMCX 01/12/00 3.3%
500 Index 01/12/00 0.0%
VWIGX 01/12/00 2.4%
CYMI 01/12/00 -8.3%
CYMI 01/31/00 -25.7%
MOT 02/04/00 -28.4%
MOT 02/11/00 -31.0%
PRSCX 02/29/00 -19.4%
UTEK 02/29/00 -28.8% (See Note)
Average -12.7%
Less Money Market Interest 1.4%
Total Opportunity Cost -14.0% (Negative means ahead)
Last Week's Value -18.1%
[Note: % benefit on UTEK was locked in with a purchase on
4-14-00 at $11.75 per share.]
To summarize, it was a much calmer market this week.
Both the international markets and the US markets are
plus or minus 2% from 1/12/2000, when I was first able
to act on the sell signal. The stocks and funds that I
sold, however, have dropped more, so I'm 14% better off
than if I had not followed the sell signal.
Best wishes,
I2 |
