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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (107003)4/22/2000 3:36:00 AM
From: Petz  Read Replies (1) of 1573941
 
Tad, welcome back, but I differ with the reason for the "Intel CPU shortage." IMO, its not lack of investment but poor implementation --
1. Intel has gone from 0% 0.18u, 100% 0.25u to 50/50 in the last 6 months of wafer completions. That should have been enough for CPU output to grow at least 25% even allowing for some equipment downtime without adding any new capacity. The fact that output did not grow that much is strong evidence of yield and/or binsplit problems, although a significant amount of this may be at the packaging level.
2. Microsoft has recently complained about poor business PC demand, yet Intel continues to claim that demand is extremely robust. They keep saying "demand is higher than forecast" but where's the proof? Even AMD just met sales projections for the high-end Athlon PC's and did not exceed them.
3. Intel's forecast that supplies will not ease until the THIRD quarter also implies that the continued migration to the 0.18u process will not result in any additional CPU output in Q2. Clearly something is wrong with Intel's 0.18 production. Maybe the equipment Intel is using for 0.18 is simply not good enough, or not good enough to do the "notched gate" feature which is the primary method of extending the MHz limit of the P6 architecture.

Petz
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