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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.97

+0.1%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (47659)	4/22/2000 10:16:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Jim, I am rah rah! LOL! Seriously though... while I do agree that we will have a pull back I don't believe we'll test the lows recently set and I do believe that things will look much different in one or two months. This is a seasonal (albiet more pronounced than the past) correction which took a much needed chunk out of valuations after a huge run up from November. Fundmentally nothing has changed. Tech's are growing anywhere from 30%-50% a year and this market is just at the forefront of change and creating change for old world companies. Productivity increases are just begining - they are not out of gas AND we've not even started overseas yet. So, take the NASDAQ about two years ago when it was trading 1900. Figure middle of the road growth over two years (40%) and you get a NAZ at 3725 and at the low end (30%) 3210. We are clearly trading at about fair value/fair growth for the NAZ and should finish the year (at fair growth rates) in the mid 4000's. That all said the original poster was correct in that some stocks will be worthless and will continue to go down and averaging down on these is probably not wise. BUT, good solid techs will outperform the market and the NAZ (which is made up of these same companies) will power forward again soon. Just another opinion..... OG

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